Oscar Nominee Predictions 2010

Early tomorrow morning the Oscar nominees will be announced. And once again, I will be waking up very early to watch them! The nominations announcement is usually more interesting than actual Oscar night: there's always a few surprises, which sets off an entire new explosion of discussion on the Oscar blogs. Last year's shocker was when "The Reader" beat out "The Dark Knight" not only for Best Picture, but Best Director, too.

This year will be a bit different, with two significant changes looking to make our game a little harder. The Best Picture field has been expanded to ten nominees, apparently to make way for more populist fare. (The last decade has been dominated by smaller, dramatic fare, much to the chagrin of the Oscar producers. 2008 had the lowest ratings in history -- but it was also a year of unprecedented quality, with "No Country for Old Men" winning.) But there's a catch here: there's a new voting system in place. Voters must now rank their nominations. What impact will this make? Hard to say, but it's been suggested that it may only take a small group of passionate voters to place something as their Number One for a film to make the nominees. Likewise, films that are well respected but not loved may do rather well: the films that make everyone's number two or three spots.

"Avatar", "The Hurt Locker" and "Inglourious Basterds" seem to be the top three right now, each of them being healthily represented across the precursors. "The Hurt Locker" has won virtually everything, but as we know, critics don't vote for Oscars. Still, there's no denying its track record, including the PGA and DGA over James Cameron's "Avatar". What makes this quite delicious is that Kathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker") and Cameron are ex-spouses. Yum. "Inglourious Basterds" has been, in my opinion, the surprise of the season. Released to wildly mixed reviews, no one was sure how well it would do come award season. A revisionist WWII film directed by Tarantino doesn't scream Oscar. How has it done so well? Because of it's rabidly loyal fans, such as myself. Those that love it, LOVE it. No doubt it'll be the example of 'a small group of passionate voters who place the film as their number one'.

So, what else is there? "Up in the Air" and "Precious" were early favourites, supported by huge amounts of festival buzz. They may have peaked too early, though, with "Up in the Air" being clobbered by "Avatar"s release in the same week. "An Education" has been represented everywhere, but I'm beginning to doubt whether it has the passionate vote behind it. Could this be our casualty this year? I'm hoping not, because it was a simply divine piece of filmmaking. But could it be the flip-side of the 'respected but not loved' theory? It's possible that the nominees will be made up of films that have passionate voters. And what films would these be? "District 9", "Star Trek" (yes, really), "A Serious Man", "(500) Days of Summer", even "Crazy Heart".

But the chance of that is unlikely, methinks. "An Education" is a safe bet for Best Picture. Of the other contenders (add "Invictus", "Up", "The Hangover", "Julie & Julia", "The Messenger", "The Road", "A Single Man" and "The Last Station"), the likely ones to be nominated are the sci-fi hits "District 9" and "Star Trek". "District 9" has been making appearances all over the place throughout the season, including nods at the PGA and Golden Globes. "Star Trek" seems to be the kind of populist filmmaking the extended nomination list was meant for, and may do quite well on the ballots of the craftspeople. "Invictus" has the Clint Eastwood vote going on -- but my suspicion is that this has been the lazy prediction. I would not be surprised if it doesn't get nominated. In fact, I'm going to bet on it. If I said "An Education" could be the victim of 'respected but not loved', "Invictus" is a much more likely one. Tepid box office, mediocre critical acclaim, and reeking of Oscar bait. Please, Academy, do us a favour. Pass on it. "A Serious Man" has been tipped for a nomination based on a small but passionate group of voters who have apparently lurved it. Rumours of a very successful screening of "The Messenger" have also circulated, but I don't see it happening.

As for the rest of the categories, here are some locks:

Mo'nique, "Precious"

Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"

Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"

Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"

Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"

But now, for my predictions.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker

2. Avatar

3. Inglourious Basterds

4. Up in the Air

5. Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

6. An Education

7. Up

8. District 9

9. A Serious Man

10. Star Trek

11. Invictus

Dark Horses:

(500) Days of Summer

The Hangover

Julie & Julia

The White Ribbon

Crazy Heart

The Road

The Messenger

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"

2. James Cameron, "Avatar"

3. Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"

4. Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"

5. Lee Daniels, "Precious"

6. Lone Sherfig, "An Education"

7. Neill Blokamp, "District 9"

8. JJ Abrams, "Star Trek"

9. Coen Bros, "A Serious Man"

10. Michael Haneke, "The White Ribbon"

11. Clint Eastwood, "Invictus"

BEST ACTOR

1. Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"

2. George Clooney, "Up in the Air"

3. Colin Firth, "A Single Man"

4. Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"

5. Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"

6. Viggo Mortenson, "The Road"

7. Matt Damon, "The Informant!"

8. Sharlto Copley, "District 9"

9. Michael Stuhlbarg, "A Serious Man"

10. Tobey Maguire, "Brothers"

BEST ACTRESS

1. Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"

2. Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"

3. Carey Mulligan, "An Education"

4. Gabby Sidibe, "Precious"

5. Emily Blunt, "The Young Victoria" (My No Guts No Glory over Mirren)

6. Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"

7. Abbie Cornish, "Bright Star"

8. Marion Cotillard, "Nine"

9. Saiorse Ronan, "The Lovely Bones"

10. Audrey Tatou, "Coco Avant Chanel"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Mo'nique, "Precious"

2. Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"

3. Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"

4. Julianne Moore, "A Single Man"

5. Mélanie Laurent, "Inglourious Basterds" (NGNG over Kruger)

6. Diane Kruger, "Inglourious Basterds"

7. Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"

8. Penelope Cruz, "Nine"

9. Samantha Morton, "The Messenger"

10. Marion Cotillard, "Nine" (A wonderful thing called 'category confusion')

11. Rosamund Pike, "An Education" (My ballot would go for her. Is there a chance?)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"

And the rest is a complete mess. There's been little consistency throughout the season.

2. Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"

3. Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"

4. Alfred Molina, "An Education"

5. Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station" (His first nomination. Ever. Really.)

6. Christian McKay, "Me and Orson Welles"

7. Anthony Mackie, "The Hurt Locker"

8. Matt Damon, "Invictus"

9. Alec Baldwin, "It's Complicated"

10. Stanley Tucci, "Julie & Julia"

11. Kodi Smit-McPhee, "The Road"

WRITING, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. "Inglourious Basterds"

2. "The Hurt Locker"

3. "A Serious Man"

4. "Up"

5. "(500) Days of Summer"

6. "Avatar"

7. "The Hangover"

8. "It's Complicated"

9. "The Messenger"

10. "The White Ribbon"

WRITING, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. "Precious"

2. "Up in the Air"

3. "An Education"

4. "District 9"

5. "In the Loop"

6. "Crazy Heart"

7. "Julie & Julia"

8. "Invictus"

9. "Star Trek"

10. "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

EDITING

1. "The Hurt Locker"

2. "Avatar"

3. "Up in the Air"

4. "Inglourious Basterds"

5. "District 9"

6. "Precious"

7. "Star Trek"

8. "(500) Days of Summer" (My ballot. Pleeeeease?)

9. "Julie & Julia"

10. "The Hangover"

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. "The Hurt Locker"

2. "Inglourious Basterds"

3. "Avatar"

4. "The White Ribbon"

5. "Nine" (Very weak spot -- my gut says no.)

6. "The Road"

7. "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince"

8. "A Single Man"

9. "Precious"

10. "Public Enemies"

ART DIRECTION

1. "Inglourious Basterds"

2. "Avatar"

3. "District 9"

And the rest is a mess, again.

4. "The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"

5. "Julie & Julia"

6. "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince"

7. "Public Enemies"

8. "Sherlock Holmes"

9. "Bright Star"

10. "Star Trek"

COSTUME DESIGN

1. "The Young Victoria"

2. "Coco Avant Chanel"

3. "Inglourious Basterds"

4. "Nine"

5. "Sherlock Holmes"

6. "An Education"

7. "Bright Star"

8. "A Single Man"

9. "Julie & Julia"

10. "The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"

11. "Where the Wild Things Are"

MAKEUP

(Three nominees of seven bake-off contenders)

1. "District 9"

2. "Star Trek"

3. "The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"

4. "The Road"

5. "Il Divo"

6. "The Young Victoria"

7. "Night at the Museum: The Battle of the Smithsonian"

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

1. "Up"

2. "Avatar"

3. "The Informant!"

4. "A Single Man"

5. "Coco Avant Chanel" (NGNG over Holmes)

6. "Sherlock Holmes"

7. "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

8. "Public Enemies"

9. "Brothers"

10. "Star Trek"

11. "The Road"

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Many are assuming 5 nominees -- my gut tells me there'll be 3.

1. "The Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart"

2. "Down in New Orleans" from "The Princess and the Frog"

3. "I See You" from "Avatar" (Please, be wrong about this. Please please please.)

4. "You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger" from "An Education"

5. "Cinema Italiano" from "Nine"

6. "Almost There" from "The Princess and the Frog"

7. "All is Love" from "Where the Wild Things Are"

8. "Take it All" from "Nine"

9. "(I Want To) Come Home" from "Everything's Fine"

10. "Stu's Song" from "The Hangover"

SOUND MIXING

1. "Avatar"

2. "The Hurt Locker"

3. "Star Trek"

4. "Up"

5. "District 9"

6. "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" (NGNG SNUB!)

7. "2012"

8. "Inglourious Basterds"

9. "Nine"

10. "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince:

SOUND EDITING

1. "Avatar"

2. "District 9"

3. "Star Trek"

4. "The Hurt Locker"

5. "Up" (NGNG over the snubbed Transformers. Pleeeeeeease!)

6. "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen"

7. "2012"

8. "Inglourious Basterds"

9. "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs"

10. "Push"

VISUAL EFFECTS

(Three nominees of seven bake-off contenders)

1. "Avatar" (Duh.)

2. "Star Trek"

3. "District 9"

4. "2012"

5. "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen"

6. "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince"

7. "Terminator: Salvation"

FOREIGN LANGUAGE

Oh, everyone's favourite notorious category. The snubs here are amazing: "Gommorah", "4 Months 3 Weeks 2 Days", et cetera, et cetera... what will be the snub this year?

1. "The White Ribbon" from Germany

2. "A Prophet" from France (Although, this is the most likely major snub.)

3. "The Secret in Their Eyes" from Argentina

4. "The Milk of Sorrow" from Peru

5. "Samson and Delilah" from Australia (NGNG)

6. "Wartime in Winter" from Netherlands

7. "Ajami" from Israel

8. "Kelin" from Kazakhstan

9. "The World is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner" from Bulgaria

ANIMATED FEATURE

(Five nominees! w00t!)

1. "Up"

2. "Coraline"

3. "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

4. "The Princess and the Frog"

5. "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs"

6. "Mary and Max"

7. "Ponyo"

8. "Monsters vs Aliens"

9. "9"

10. "A Christmas Carol"

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. "The Cove"

2. "Food Inc."

And from here, it gets tricky.

3. "Mugabe and the White African"

4. "The Beaches of Agnes"

5. "Every Little Step"

6. "Under Our Skin"

7. "The Most Dangerous Man in America"

8. "The Last Emperor: Valentino"

9. "Soundtrack for a Revolution"

10. "Burma VJ"

11. "Garbage Dreams"

12. "Sergio"

13. "The September Issue"