Post-Nomination Round Up

I did very well this morning, managing 86/105. I correctly predicted the difficult category of Supporting Actress and all of The King's Speech's nominations. Didn't see two of Inception's snubs coming, but it deserves it: the film was a pompous mess. Other surprises:

Tron misses out in Visual Effects, Hereafter makes it in.

Black Swan misses Original Screenplay and only racks up 5 nominations.

Alice in Wonderland misses Makeup, which I'm guessing has something to do with too much computer manipulation.

I Am Love's single nomination for Costume, which makes me very happy.

Waiting for Superman misses nods for Feature Documentary and Original Song.

Dogtooth makes it in for Foreign Language Feature.

The Sound categories only have 2 films (True Grit and Inception) in common.

Andrew Garfield misses in Supporting Actor.

Best Picture 10/10

Best Director 4/5

In a welcomed surprise, Nolan gets snubbed and the Coens get in.

1. David Fincher, "The Social Network"

2. Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

4. Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"

5. David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

6. Joel & Ethan Coen, "True Grit"

Actress 5/5

Actor 4/5

Javier Bardem makes it in, Gosling drops out in an unsurprising move.

1. Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

2. Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

3. James Franco, "127 Hours"

4. Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

6. Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"

Supporting Actress 5/5

I surprisingly managed to get them all here, correctly predicting Jacki Weaver.

Supporting Actor 4/5

Hawkes repeats his surprise SAG nomination here at the expense of Garfield.

1. Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

2. Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

3. Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

5. Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

6. John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Original Screenplay 4/5

"Black Swan" gets replaced with Leigh's "Another Year". Not surprised that Leigh made it in.

1. The King's Speech

2. The Kids Are All Right

3. Inception

5. The Fighter

6. Another Year

Adapted Screenplay 5/5

Editing 4/5

"Inception" shows how weak it really was by missing out here and Directing, two supposed 'locks'.

1. Social Network

3. Black Swan

4. The Fighter

5. The King's Speech

6. 127 Hours

Cinematography 5/5

Art Direction 4/5

1. Inception

2. The King's Speech

3. Alice in Wonderland

4. True Grit

7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

Costume 4/5

"I Am Love" makes a very, very welcome surprise addition here.

1. Alice in Wonderland

2. The King's Speech

3. True Grit

4. The Tempest

n/a I Am Love

Makeup 2/3

Too much CGI probably killed "Alice in Wonderland" here.

2. The Wolfman

3. Barney's Version

6. The Way Back

Sound Mixing 4/5

I get total bragging rights for correctly predicting "King's Speech" here. Notice that there's only 2 common films between the Sound categories: very interesting!

1. Inception

3. True Grit

4. Social Network

5. The King's Speech (No Guts, No Glory!)

9. Salt

Sound Editing 3/5

1. Inception

3. True Grit

5. Tron Legacy

6. Toy Story 3

10. Unstoppable

Visual Effects 3/5

Huh? Double whammy: "Hereafter" makes it in a complete shocker, and "Tron" is snubbed.

1. Inception

2. Alice in Wonderland

4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

6. Iron Man 2

7. Hereafter

Score 4/5

"Alice" misses yet again, and Rahman shows he's no one-hit wonder with the Academy.

1. The Social Network

2. The King's Speech

3. Inception

5. How to Train Your Dragon

6. 127 Hours

Song 3/4

Only 4 nominees this year, so do I count my #5 spot for making it in? I will, because my 3-5 slots were actually a tie for me.

1. "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3

2. "I See The Light", Tangled

5. "If I Rise", 127 Hours

- "Coming Home", Country Strong

Foreign Language 4/5

"Dogtooth" makes it in!

1. Incendies (Canada)

2. In a Better World (Denmark)

3. Biutiful (Mexico)

5. Dogtooth (Greece)

6. Outside the Law (Algeria)

Animated 2/3

"Illusionist" makes it in over Disney's "Tangled" in a pleasant, if not wholly unsurprising, move.

1. Toy Story 3

2. How to Train Your Dragon

4. The Illusionist

Documentary 3/5

"Waiting for Superman" shockingly gets left out here.

1. Inside Job

3. Exit Through the Gift Shop

4. Restrapo

7. Waste Land

8. Gasland

It's That Time Again: Oscar Nominations Predictions

I don't feel like writing explanations, so instead I simply split up each list as I see fit.

Best Picture

Top Tier/Locks

1. The King's Speech

2. The Social Network

3. Black Swan

4. Inception

5. The Fighter

Second Tier

6. True Grit

7. The Kids Are All Right

8. Toy Story 3

Third Tier

9. 127 Hours

10. Winter's Bone

11. The Town

Dark Horses

12. Shutter Island

13. Ghost Writer

14. Another Year

15. Blue Valentine

16. The Way Back

17. How To Train Your Dragon

18. Rabbit Hole

19. Hereafter

20. Conviction

Best Director

Top Tier

1. David Fincher, "The Social Network"

2. Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

3. Christopher Nolan, "Inception"

4. Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"

5. David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

Possibilities

6. Joel & Ethan Coen, "True Grit"

7. Danny Boyle, "127 Hours"

Long Shots

8. Debra Granik, "Winter's Bone"

9. Lisa Cholodenko, "The Kids Are All Right"

10. Ben Affleck, "The Town"

11. Mike Leigh, "Another Year"

12. Martin Scorsese, "Shutter Island"

13. Roman Polanski, "Ghost Writer"

14. Peter Weir, "The Way Back"

Best Actress

1. Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

2. Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

3. Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"

4. Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

5. Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

6. Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right"

7. Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

8. Lesley Manville, "Another Year"

9. Tilda Swinton, "I Am Love"

10. Hillary Swank, "Conviction"

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

2. Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

3. James Franco, "127 Hours"

4. Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

5. Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"

6. Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"

7. Mark Wahlberg, "The Fighter"

8. Robert Duvall, "Get Low"

9. Paul Giamatti, "Barney's Vision"

10. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Shutter Island"

Best Supporting Actress

1. Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

2. Amy Adams, "The Fighter"

3. Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

4. Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

5. Jackie Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

6. Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"

7. Lesley Manville, "Another Year"

8. Olivia Williams, "Ghost Writer"

9. Miranda Richardson, "Made in Dagenham"

10. Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole"

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

2. Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

3. Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

4. Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network"

5. Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

6. John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

7. Sam Rockwell, "Conviction"

8. Matt Damon, "True Grit"

9. Peter Postlethwaite, "The Town"

10. Bill Murray, "Get Low"

Original Screenplay

1. The King's Speech

2. The Kids Are All Right

3. Inception

4. Black Swan

5. The Fighter

6. Another Year

7. Blue Valentine

8. Get Low

9. The Illusionist

10. Made in Dagenham

Adapted Screenplay

1. The Social Network

2. Toy Story 3

3. Winter's Bone

4. True Grit

5. 127 Hours

6. Ghost Writer

7. The Town

8. Shutter Island

9. Rabbit Hole

10. How To Train Your Dragon

Editing

1. Social Network

2. Inception

3. Black Swan

4. The Fighter

5. The King's Speech

6. 127 Hours

7. Shutter Island

8. True Grit

9. The Town

10. The Kids Are All Right

Cinematography

1. True Grit

2. Inception

3. Black Swan

4. The King's Speech

5. The Social Network

6. 127 Hours

7. Shutter Island

8. The Way Back

9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

10. The Fighter

Art Direction

1. Inception

2. The King's Speech

3. Alice in Wonderland

4. True Grit

5. Black Swan

6. Shutter Island

7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

8. Tron Legacy

9. Robin Hood

10. The Chronicles of Narnia

Costume Design

The performance costumes in "Black Swan" were not designed by Westcott: this is why I'm placing it so low.

1. Alice in Wonderland

2. The King's Speech

3. True Grit

4. The Tempest

5. Burlesque

6. Black Swan

7. Robin Hood

8. Made in Dagenham

9. Shutter Island

10. Tron Legacy

Makeup

From the bake-off shortlist of 7 films.

1. Alice in Wonderland

2. The Wolfman

3. Barney's Version

4. The Fighter

5. The Way Back

6. True Grit

7. Jonah Hex

Sound Mixing

"Inception" is really the only lock here: the rest is a crap-shoot. My No Guts, No Glory pick is "The King's Speech", which probably won't materialize.

1. Inception

2. Black Swan

3. True Grit

4. Social Network

5. The King's Speech (No Guts, No Glory!)

6. 127 Hours

7. Shutter Island

8. Toy Story 3

9. Salt

10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

11. Tron Legacy

12. How to Train Your Dragon

Sound Editing

1. Inception

2. Black Swan

3. True Grit

4. How To Train Your Dragon

5. Tron Legacy

6. Toy Story 3

7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

8. Salt

9. 127 Hours

10. Unstoppable

11. Iron Man 2

Visual Effects

1. Inception

2. Alice in Wonderland

3. Tron Legacy

4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

5. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

6. Iron Man 2

7. Hereafter

Original Score

1. The Social Network

2. The King's Speech

3. Inception

4. Alice in Wonderland

5. How to Train Your Dragon

6. 127 Hours

7. The Ghost Writer

8. Never Let Me Go

9. Tron Legacy

10. The Way Back

11. Let Me In

Original Song

1. "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3

2. "I See The Light", Tangled

3. "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me", Burlesque

4. "Shine", Waiting for Superman

5. "If I Rise", 127 Hours

Other Possibilities:

"Bound to You", Burlesque

"Welcome to Burlesque", Burlesque

"Chansons Illusioniste", The Illusionist

"Coming Home", Country Strong

"Despicable Me", Despicable Me

Foreign Language Film

1. Incendies (Canada)

2. Biutiful (Mexico)

3. In a Better World (Denmark)

4. Life, Above All (South Africa)

5. Dogtooth (Greece) (No Guts, No Glory!)

5. Outside the Law (Algeria)

7. Confessions (Japan)

8. Even the Rain (Spain)

9. Simple Simon (Sweden)

Feature Animated Film

1. Toy Story 3

2. How to Train Your Dragon

3. Tangled

4. Illusionist

5. Despicable Me

Feature Documentary

1. Inside Job

2. Waiting for Superman

3. Exit Through the Gift Shop

4. Restrapo

5. The Tillman Story

6. Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Elliot Spitzer

7. Waste Land

8. Gasland

The tally of nominations:

The King's Speech: 12

Inception: 10

The Social Network: 9

Black Swan: 9

True Grit: 9

The Fighter: 7

Alice in Wonderland: 5