I don't feel like writing explanations, so instead I simply split up each list as I see fit.
Best Picture
Top Tier/Locks
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. Black Swan
4. Inception
5. The Fighter
Second Tier
6. True Grit
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Toy Story 3
Third Tier
9. 127 Hours
10. Winter's Bone
11. The Town
Dark Horses
12. Shutter Island
13. Ghost Writer
14. Another Year
15. Blue Valentine
16. The Way Back
17. How To Train Your Dragon
18. Rabbit Hole
19. Hereafter
20. Conviction
Best Director
Top Tier
1. David Fincher, "The Social Network"
2. Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
3. Christopher Nolan, "Inception"
4. Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
5. David O. Russell, "The Fighter"
Possibilities
6. Joel & Ethan Coen, "True Grit"
7. Danny Boyle, "127 Hours"
Long Shots
8. Debra Granik, "Winter's Bone"
9. Lisa Cholodenko, "The Kids Are All Right"
10. Ben Affleck, "The Town"
11. Mike Leigh, "Another Year"
12. Martin Scorsese, "Shutter Island"
13. Roman Polanski, "Ghost Writer"
14. Peter Weir, "The Way Back"
Best Actress
1. Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
2. Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
3. Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
4. Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
5. Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"
6. Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right"
7. Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
8. Lesley Manville, "Another Year"
9. Tilda Swinton, "I Am Love"
10. Hillary Swank, "Conviction"
Best Actor
1. Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
2. Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
3. James Franco, "127 Hours"
4. Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
5. Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"
6. Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"
7. Mark Wahlberg, "The Fighter"
8. Robert Duvall, "Get Low"
9. Paul Giamatti, "Barney's Vision"
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Shutter Island"
Best Supporting Actress
1. Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
2. Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
3. Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
4. Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
5. Jackie Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"
6. Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"
7. Lesley Manville, "Another Year"
8. Olivia Williams, "Ghost Writer"
9. Miranda Richardson, "Made in Dagenham"
10. Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole"
Best Supporting Actor
1. Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
2. Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"
3. Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
4. Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network"
5. Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
6. John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
7. Sam Rockwell, "Conviction"
8. Matt Damon, "True Grit"
9. Peter Postlethwaite, "The Town"
10. Bill Murray, "Get Low"
Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech
2. The Kids Are All Right
3. Inception
4. Black Swan
5. The Fighter
6. Another Year
7. Blue Valentine
8. Get Low
9. The Illusionist
10. Made in Dagenham
Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network
2. Toy Story 3
3. Winter's Bone
4. True Grit
5. 127 Hours
6. Ghost Writer
7. The Town
8. Shutter Island
9. Rabbit Hole
10. How To Train Your Dragon
Editing
1. Social Network
2. Inception
3. Black Swan
4. The Fighter
5. The King's Speech
6. 127 Hours
7. Shutter Island
8. True Grit
9. The Town
10. The Kids Are All Right
Cinematography
1. True Grit
2. Inception
3. Black Swan
4. The King's Speech
5. The Social Network
6. 127 Hours
7. Shutter Island
8. The Way Back
9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I
10. The Fighter
Art Direction
1. Inception
2. The King's Speech
3. Alice in Wonderland
4. True Grit
5. Black Swan
6. Shutter Island
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I
8. Tron Legacy
9. Robin Hood
10. The Chronicles of Narnia
Costume Design
The performance costumes in "Black Swan" were not designed by Westcott: this is why I'm placing it so low.
1. Alice in Wonderland
2. The King's Speech
3. True Grit
4. The Tempest
5. Burlesque
6. Black Swan
7. Robin Hood
8. Made in Dagenham
9. Shutter Island
10. Tron Legacy
Makeup
From the bake-off shortlist of 7 films.
1. Alice in Wonderland
2. The Wolfman
3. Barney's Version
4. The Fighter
5. The Way Back
6. True Grit
7. Jonah Hex
Sound Mixing
"Inception" is really the only lock here: the rest is a crap-shoot. My No Guts, No Glory pick is "The King's Speech", which probably won't materialize.
1. Inception
2. Black Swan
3. True Grit
4. Social Network
5. The King's Speech (No Guts, No Glory!)
6. 127 Hours
7. Shutter Island
8. Toy Story 3
9. Salt
10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I
11. Tron Legacy
12. How to Train Your Dragon
Sound Editing
1. Inception
2. Black Swan
3. True Grit
4. How To Train Your Dragon
5. Tron Legacy
6. Toy Story 3
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I
8. Salt
9. 127 Hours
10. Unstoppable
11. Iron Man 2
Visual Effects
1. Inception
2. Alice in Wonderland
3. Tron Legacy
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I
5. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
6. Iron Man 2
7. Hereafter
Original Score
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. Inception
4. Alice in Wonderland
5. How to Train Your Dragon
6. 127 Hours
7. The Ghost Writer
8. Never Let Me Go
9. Tron Legacy
10. The Way Back
11. Let Me In
Original Song
1. "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3
2. "I See The Light", Tangled
3. "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me", Burlesque
4. "Shine", Waiting for Superman
5. "If I Rise", 127 Hours
Other Possibilities:
"Bound to You", Burlesque
"Welcome to Burlesque", Burlesque
"Chansons Illusioniste", The Illusionist
"Coming Home", Country Strong
"Despicable Me", Despicable Me
Foreign Language Film
1. Incendies (Canada)
2. Biutiful (Mexico)
3. In a Better World (Denmark)
4. Life, Above All (South Africa)
5. Dogtooth (Greece) (No Guts, No Glory!)
5. Outside the Law (Algeria)
7. Confessions (Japan)
8. Even the Rain (Spain)
9. Simple Simon (Sweden)
Feature Animated Film
1. Toy Story 3
2. How to Train Your Dragon
3. Tangled
4. Illusionist
5. Despicable Me
Feature Documentary
1. Inside Job
2. Waiting for Superman
3. Exit Through the Gift Shop
4. Restrapo
5. The Tillman Story
6. Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Elliot Spitzer
7. Waste Land
8. Gasland
The tally of nominations:
The King's Speech: 12
Inception: 10
The Social Network: 9
Black Swan: 9
True Grit: 9
The Fighter: 7
Alice in Wonderland: 5
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