Foreign Language Feature
Word is that Denmark's entry and Golden Globe winner In a Better World has been doing very well at the Academy screenings. One thing to remember is that this is one of the few categories that requires voters to have seen all five nominated pictures: what does this mean? Retirees. Hence why you don't often see the Biggest film win, nor the critical darling. (Dogtooth hasn't a chance in hell.) Villeneuve's film and Canada's entry Incendies has also been making a splash around the Academy, while some are suggesting that Iñárritu's star-director status and Bardem's Actor nom will make Biutiful a shoo-in for this award: they're forgetting that his work has always been dividing, and reviews have suggested that Bardem is the only decent thing in the film. Not happening.
Best Bet: In a Better World, Denmark
Close Behind: Incendies, Canada
Dark Horse: Biutiful, Mexico
Animated Feature
No elaboration needed.
Best Bet: Toy Story 3
Very Dark Horse: How To Train Your Dragon
Documentary Feature
One of the most exciting categories of the night: will Banksy win? Or will the Academy 'stick it to the man' and give it to Inside Job? The latter is more likely, but some are sticking with Gift Shop. Then again, this is an often difficult category to predict... will Restrapo take it? Or Waste Land? Hmmmm!
Best Bet: Inside Job
Delicious Alternative: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Short (Live Action)
God of Love has been making quite a splash, garnering favourable comparisons to Woody Allen and picking up a student Academy Award. But Na Wewe and Wish 143 may just be too irresistibly baity to resist.
Best Guess: God of Love
Super-Bait: Na Wewe
But, What the Hell Do I Know?: Wish 143
Short (Animated)
The kid-friendly, entertaining and star-filled Gruffalo is the likely winner here. However, 'arty' short animated films often appear as winners: in which case, go for Madagascar.
Best Guess: The Gruffalo
Technically Impressive Dark Horse: Madagascar, A Journey Diary
Documentary (Short Subject)
Always a very difficult category to predict. It really is a toss-up between three films, of whichStrangers No More may actually be your wisest choice: a global classroom of 48 nationalities in a Tel-Aviv school. Touching, hopeful, topical. But I'm going for Killing in the Name, which follows a man waging his own vendetta against jihadism after a suicide bomber attacked his wedding. Still, don't rule out any of the others in this tie-breaking category.
Best Guess: Killing in the Name
Close Behind: Strangers No More
Once Again, What Do I Know?: Warriors of Qiugang
Art Direction
One of the most difficult categories of the night, and a three-way race. (In fact, I may be switching this at the last moment.) One thing to consider is that every Tim Burton film that has been nominated here has won the award, starting with Batman in 1989 and most recently withSweeney Todd. That, and the overkill art direction of the film, may be enough to push it over the edge -- but was it all that successful as a CGI explosion? Last year's winner, the equally CGI-drenched Avatar did its fantastical environment much better. Many are calling The King's Speech as the likely winner, in case it pulls a sweep on us. I for one am not anticipating such a sweep happening, and I think this is one category in which its competition is too strong.Inception is such a film, full of memorable moments that hinge on its elaborate sets. For now, I'm going with a Tim Burton continuation, but I'm really tempted to call an Inception win.
Best Bet: The King's Speech
"Most Art Direction" Dark Horse: Alice in Wonderland
Memorable Dark Horse: Inception
Costume
Another difficult category, because any of these will make a good Oscar story -- but two nominees have been splitting the experts. If we anticipate a sweep, The King's Speech could easily pick this one up, and not undeservingly so. Alice in Wonderland's costumes were one of the few elements that I actually thoroughly enjoyed from the film, designed by master costumer Colleen Atwood. Indeed, the experts are split between the two -- but all the ones that I trust the most are behind Speech. I agree.
Best Bet: The King's Speech
Close Behind: Alice in Wonderland
Makeup
Always a toss-up category, but I'm anticipating a 'most makeup' award going to The Wolfman. But then again, how many voters actually saw the film, and how many are willing to award it? Don't be surprised if either Barney's Version (aging!) or The Way Back takes it.
"Most Makeup"/Best Bet: The Wolfman
If They Couldn't Sit Through That: Barney's Version
Visual Effects
One of the few slam-dunks of the night. Alice in Wonderland may shock à la Golden Compass, but voters will probably want to reward Nolan's film somewhere: this is the most logical, competition-free place.
Best Bet: Inception
Dark Horse: Alice in Wonderland
Original Score
Another one of the most anticipated categories of the night, a tight two-way race between the prolific Alexandre Desplat with his fourth nomination since 2003 for The King's Speech and newcomers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for their much acclaimed work on The Social Network. Who would've thought a decade ago that Reznor would be up for an Oscar one day? It's a great score and a delicious story... but if there's a sweep going on and they finally want to reward the great Desplat, The King's Speech could easily take this.
Best Bet: The Social Network
Close Behind: The King's Speech
Original Song
Opinion seems to fall behind Randy Newman's "We Belong Together" -- but is anyone else having difficulty remembering any song from the film? I just can't imagine it. Nevertheless, I suspect the general good-will towards the film and Newman (who only has a single Oscar to date among 20 nominations) will lead him to victory here. Rahman and Dido's song "If I Rise", then again, is a great track that was predominantly featured in a climatic moment in Boyle's 127 Hours, which seems unlikely to get an award anywhere else. Is this where they will reward it?
Best Bet: "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3
Close Behind: "If I Rise", 127 Hours
Sound Mixing
Virtually everyone is predicting Inception to take both sound categories. I think there's some logic to this, but I have a feeling we're going to see a repeat of The Dark Knight's fate: everyone predicts it to win both, but it only walks away with Sound Editing. Why? Numerous complaints about how loud his films are, and the frankly muddy sound mixing. My bet is that True Grit will take it, finally rewarding the Coens' excellent sound designs. But don't be shocked if Salt takes it. Or how about one of the most-talked about sound mixing moments of the year, the crystal clear conversation in a thumping club featured in The Social Network? None would be all that surprising, frankly.
Best Bet: Inception
Dark Horse/My Ballot: True Grit
Sound Editing
Best Bet: Inception
Dark Horse: True Grit
Cinematography
It's time for Roger Deakins (No Country for Old Men, Fargo, The Assassination of Jesse James, O Brother Where Art Thou?, Revolutionary Road), one of the greatest living cinematographers, to finally win an Academy Award -- at least this is the thinking that has been going around. Will they want to finally reward him for one of his lesser, though still excellent, works? Or will Inception with its recent ASC win and memorable lensing take it? It's a distinct possibility, and some may even say the obvious conclusion. But this category is a strange one at the Academy: let's not forget some past losers include Children of Men and Black Hawk Down.But the online community seems to lean towards a Deakins win here -- and if not him, then Matthew Libatique for Aronofsky's Black Swan. Sure, it's his first nomination, but unlike the acting categories, voters don't really seem to pay attention to how 'due' any of the craftspeople are. (Kevin O'Connell, with 20 nominations and no wins, anyone?) And of any of the nominees,Black Swan strikes me as having the most memorable images. I wouldn't count it out.
Best Bet: True Grit
Dark Horses: Inception and Black Swan
Sweeper Possibility: The King's Speech
Editing
This category should also be known as "Most Obvious Editing", as the winners here usually follow that rule. I also find that winning films tend to not rely so much on editing, but screenwriting. Take for example the most likely winner (and ACE winner) The Social Network: the parallel editing patterns were written in the screenplay. But I digress. 127 Hours is your biggest competition, with maybe-maybe-maybe Black Swan as an outsider pick. (No,Inception was not nominated here. A crime for some people, barely a blip on my radar.)
Best Bet: The Social Network
Dark Horse: 127 Hours
Original Screenplay
Will they shock us and go for a sophisticated, socially relevant comedy? No. They'll go for the handsome, moving, excellent and deserving The King's Speech.
Best Bet: The King's Speech
Very Dark Horse: The Kids Are All Right
Adapted Screenplay
Seemingly the most locked category of the night, next to Leading Actor. Aaron Sorkin, he that is humble, will win the Oscar.
Best Bet: The Social Network
If Hell Freezes Over: Toy Story 3
Actress in a Supporting Role
The most difficult major category of the night, a seeming 3-way race with 2 very distinct upset possibilities. Really, it could go to any of these ladies. Melissa Leo was dominating the season with her baity role in Best Picture nominated The Fighter, but has she turned voters off with her rather, er, interesting behaviour as of late? Considering that I don't think she was that far ahead of her competitors in the first place, that could just be the case. Helena Bonham Carter is overdue for an Oscar, but does she deserve it for her somewhat lightweight, if delightful, performance? Or what about one of my current favourites, Amy Adams in her third nomination since bursting onto the scene in 2005's Junebug? And for the hell of it, critical darling and Australian veteran Jacki Weaver? But I think the winner will be the most obvious case of category fraud in a long time, 14-year old Hailee Steinfeld for her brilliant performance in True Grit. This category is kind to young actresses and she's the lead in a film that the Academy obviously liked very, very much. Smart money is on Leo, but I'm taking a bit of a chance here and placing my bet on Steinfeld.
Best Guess: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Would Have Won: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Could Win: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Wouldn't Be Shocked: Amy Adams, The Fighter
Delicious Alternative: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Actor in a Supporting Role
Seems to be a slam-dunk for first-time (!) nominee Christian Bale in a juicy, Oscar-bait performance that has been sweeping the circuit. But then again, Rush's performance in a certain frontrunner is perhaps the most delightful of the bunch. It's definitely Bale's to lose, but if Rush wins, I won't be (completely) shocked.
Best Bet: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Dark Horse: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Actress in a Leading Role
Bening seems to have been making a bit of a comeback in recent weeks according to the gossip. She's Hollywood Royalty, still without an Oscar, in a critically acclaimed Best Picture nominee and a subtle, complex performance. And there's no Hilary Swank to compete against! Sounds good for Bening, right? Too bad Portman gave what some are calling the 'performance of the year' in an even more acclaimed Best Picture and Director nominee that rests on her shoulders. Oops.
Best Bet: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Dark Horse: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Actor in a Leading Role
Moving on.
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
If Hell Freezes Over: You're kidding, right? Uh... James... Franco?
Directing
In a shocking move, the DGA awarded Tom Hooper for his understated, elegant work on the frontrunner The King's Speech, beating out the seemingly unbeatable David Fincher. Ever since then, the online Oscar community has become suddenly, fiercely split. The DGA is one of the most accurate awards in relation to the Oscars, some argue. Never before has someone swept *every single* critics award, others retort. Predicting a split between Picture and Director is a tricky business; the last few times it happened, the eventual Best Picture winner was a shockingly close race: Crash/Brokeback, Chicago/Pianist, Shakespeare/Ryan. But you know what? I'm still calling a win for Fincher. Why? Even I am tempted to vote for him over Hooper, and I hated his film. Consider this a vote of good-will for his past films and a nod to the critics. But if I'm wrong, I won't be all that surprised.
Best Bet: David Fincher, The Social Network
Close Behind: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Motion Picture
It's been down to two films since October, but The King's Speech has shown its mettle with wins at the major industry guild awards. Yes, The Social Network dominated the critics -- but the critics don't vote. When King's Speech won both the PGA and the DGA, awards that seemed to be destined for Social Network, we all knew it was over. Some are still holding out on a surprise win, but I think the ranked ballot, the Weinstein's excellent campaign and the sheer quality of the film mean that we have a handsome winner for the 83rd Academy Awards.
Best Bet: The King's Speech
Dark Horse: The Social Network
Shocker: Toy Story 3 or The Fighter
Rundown
Picture: The King's Speech
Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Cinematography: True Grit
Editing: The Social Network
Art Direction: The King's Speech
Costume: The King's Speech
Makeup: The Wolfman
Visual Effects: Inception
Score: The Social Network
Song: "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3
Sound Mixing: True Grit
Sound Editing: Inception
Documentary: Inside Job
Foreign Language: In a Better World
Animated: Toy Story 3
Short Doc: Killing in the Name
Short Animated: The Gruffalo
Short Fiction: God of Love
The King's Speech: 5
The Social Network: 4
True Grit: 3
Toy Story 3: 2
Inception: 2
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