So, it comes to this. A rather strange Oscar season is coming to an end, and it's a nail-biter. As Sasha Stone always says, "Nobody knows anything": but I think this mantra applies particularly this year. The expansion to 10 Best Picture nominees led to lots of speculation of how the game would change, but in the end we still have a "top five" that have dominated throughout the season.
Quentin Tarantino had a surprise hit with his revisionist romp Inglourious Basterds, initially met with lukewarm responses from a variety of critics; yet it seems to have sweetened with time and repeat viewings, and has become a force to be reckoned with. Who would have thought? Precious stunned festival audiences and was the early favourite, launching Mo'nique's steamroll. It stumbled as the season progressed, but still managed to get nominations for Lee Daniels (Directing), Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing: a fine collection indeed. Up in the Air took Precious' place as the festival favourite at Toronto, warmly greeted by audiences and critics alike. So what happened? Opening the same weekend as a little film called Avatar. Two billion dollars later, the smurf-elves have captured audience hopes around the world: just what the Academy wanted. Expanding to ten nominees in response to The Dark Knight's snub last year, slipping ratings and in the hope of seeing a wider variety of films nominated, I think the nominated ten has achieved this goal. Funny then that a small independent war film directed by a woman and only grossing $13 million is the frontrunner... the best reviewed film of the year and critical darling The Hurt Locker. So it seems to be a David & Goliath battle this year: who will win? Avatar or The Hurt Locker?
Ah, not so fast there. Something else is new this year: preferential ballots. How does this affect the vote? Sure, a film may have plenty of #1 positions; but if everyone else hates the film and ranks it low on their ballots, the film's chances plummet. And films that are widely respected but not necessarily loved, getting few #1 spots but filling up virtually everyone else's #2 or #3 spots, may have a chance.
Avatar may be hurt by this new system. Yes, it has a passionate fan base -- but it also has a significant number of detractors. How will the actor's branch -- the largest in the Academy -- feel about a motion capture film with no acting or writing nominations? Indeed, the film's biggest critics have rightfully pointed out it's mediocre screenplay. (Unobtanium, really?) It's not the kind of film that sits well upon examination; you are enthralled while watching it, but afterwards... not so much. And while there's no denying the craft of the film, that's what the technical categories are for.
So
The Hurt Locker it is... maybe. Did
Emailgate hurt it's chances? I doubt it, but then again, apparently over 500 ballots were sent in on the final day -- after the so-called scandal broke. Will we also see some backlash going on here? The little film that could has already racked up an impressive number of awards, including the Producer's Guild, the Writer's Guild, and virtually every critic's group. And what about it's box office? In a year where the Academy seems so concerned about ratings and populism, can a film that only made $13 million win the Best Picture Oscar?
I'm betting on it. The Hurt Locker is simply too good to ignore, and I expect it to get a significant number of #1 ballot positions -- and for those that don't rank it at the top, chances are it will still be respected by a large number of voters. But what about the other films in the running? Some are suggesting that maybe the Basterds will sneak in on a wave of passionate voters. I don't agree, simply because I think the film is too divisive. Those that hate it seem toreally hate it, and perhaps some voters will see it as too frivolous or even downright insulting.Up in the Air and Precious seem to me to be films that will do well in the preferential ballots: widely respected, with some pockets of love. I wouldn't be too surprised if either one takes it. Shocked, yes. Surprised? No. But there's another film that is also widely respected --Up. Seriously, who didn't like it? I would not be surprised at all if Pixar's animated flick manages to sneak in.
But the answer is that we simply don't know how this will pan out. We're in a brave new world here, folks. Preferential ballots, scandals, the biggest film of all time vs. an independant, festival favourites, Tarantino fanboys, an expanded field. Mixed messages everywhere! So I'm going to try something new this year: percent chances. What kind of chance do I think each nominee with have? Let's go!
1. The Hurt Locker 42%
2. Avatar 27%
3. Up 10%
4. Up in the Air 10%
5. Inglourious Basterds 7%
6. Precious 3%
7. Other: 1%. Not happening.
So I'm calling a win for The Hurt Locker, but I'm not comfortable with it. Avatar may pull it off -- but I have a feeling that something unexpected may happen. Probably won't.
Probable Win: The Hurt Locker
Might Win: Avatar
The Dark Horses: Up/Up in the Air
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Best Director
History will be made tomorrow when Kathryn Bigelow becomes the first woman to win the Oscar for directing. Only three other women have ever been nominated: Lina Wertmüller (Seven Beauties, 1976), Jane Campion (The Piano, 1993) and Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation, 2003). Bigelow has been sweeping the category from the get-go, and deservedly so. Her ex-husband Jim Cameron has a long-shot for his work on Avatar, but even he has said that she deserves it. Some interesting facts: if Jason Reitman won, he would be the youngest director ever to win. If Lee Daniels won, he would be the first African-American (only the second nominated, too, after John Singleton in 1991 for Boys n the Hood) -- and he's gay, too! And if Tarantino wins, well, it's Tarantino. I love that man. But cheers to Ms. Bigelow!
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Might Win: James Cameron, Avatar
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Best Actor
Mr. Bridges seems to have this in the bag, too. What a surprise this season was! Crazy Heart came quite late in the game, and Jeff Bridges stole the spotlight away from the battle between George Clooney and Colin Firth. All signs point to a win for "the Dude", one of the hardest working actors in Hollywood for the last few decades. But if there's anyone who could spoil it for him, it just may be Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker if it starts pulling a sweep. A grand performance -- I don't think many people would complain if he won. (My personal ballot would be an easy choice here: Colin Firth's stunning work in A Single Man.)
Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Might Win: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Best Actress
NO GUTS, NO GLORY! This is the category that has been causing many pundits to be pulling their hair out. Will they award Sandra Bullock for her (mediocre) work in the surprise hit The Blind Side? 2009 saw her two biggest box office successes and made many people realize just how much they like Sandy, the girl next door. She's well loved in Hollywood and by audiences, and just oozes charm. But does anybody really think she deserves it for this? Come on. Really? Before this turn of events late in the game, this was a battle between newcomer Carey Mulligan for her excellent performance in An Education, and the Oscar queen herself, Meryl Streep -- who hasn't won an Oscar since 1982 and keeps breaking the record for total nominations (she's now up to 16). She almost won last year with Doubt. If it wasn't for Mirren, she would have won for The Devil Wears Prada. And this performance? She hit it out of the ballpark. Sparkling work. But voters will think what they always think: "let's give it to someone else! She has a million Oscars already". 27 years later, she's still missing her third one. Swank has two leading actress Oscars. Justice must be served!
Too bad for Meryl that she didn't give the best performance of the year. That, my dears, would be Gabby Sidibe in Precious. How this bubbly newcomer gave a performance of such depth and difficulty is simply astounding. And here's my gutsy choice of the night: that Meryl and Sandra will siphon votes from one another, leaving the passionate base behind Gabby to give her the Oscar. It's probably the wrong choice. Betting people should place their money on Bullock.
Probably Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Might Win: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
My Foolish Prediction: Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Should Win: Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Best Supporting Actor and Actress
There's no real competition here, folks: Waltz and Mo'nique will get their Oscars. They've swept the precursors, leaving nothing else in their wake. And the best part? Both of them deserve it. Imagine a year ago: would anyone have guessed? "Mo'nique, Oscar winner? Christoph Waltz, who?"
Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
If Hell Freezes Over: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Will Win: Mo'nique, Precious
If Hell Freezes Over: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay
A battle between Tarantino and Boal. Which one to go for? Inglourious Basterds' script that shows Tarantino's hand, with wonderfully written dialogue that only he could come up with? Or the emotional hook of Boal's The Hurt Locker, which has been in the news quite a bit lately? I just don't know. I would say Basterds, but as Guy Lodge at InContention has point out, "the Academy often bypasses more 'writerly' scripts for ones with a stronger emotional hook, particularly if it's from a film well-positioned in the race: see Milk and The Pianist." I think he has a good point there. But I just can't seem to shake off the feeling that the Academy wants to give Tarantino another award. Another foolish move of me, coming up!
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds
Might Win: The Hurt Locker
Dark Horse: Up
Best Adapted Screenplay
An easier one here. Up in the Air will get its 'also-ran' award in the screenplay category, a sign of affection for a former frontrunner. Precious has a chance here, as a clear adaptation.
Will Win: Up in the Air
Might Win: Precious
Should Win: In the Loop
Best Editing
Winner of the Eddie award, The Hurt Locker seems to me to have this in the bag.
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Might Win: Avatar
Best Cinematography
A curious battle here between groundbreaking computer technology that really blurs the line of what "cinematography" actually is, a gritty war film, a revisionist war film, and a black-and-white Austrian art film. (Sorry, Harry.) My guess is that voters will ignore the entire philosophical implications of voting for Avatar and just do it. But! I still wouldn't rule out any of the other three winning... sorry, Harry.
Will Win: Avatar
Might Win: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction
Easy peasy. Say what you want about the film's writing, you gotta give it to Cameron and his crew: it was stunning design.
Will Win: Avatar
Might Win: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Best Costume Design
Royal porn for the win! Seriously, the Academy has been voting on auto-pilot in this category for years, so why should it stop now? If they somehow smarten up, we'll see Jane Campion's wonderful Bright Star win, or even the creative threads of The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus. But that's unlikely. Go, pretty dresses, go!
Will Win: The Young Victoria
Might Win: Bright Star
Best Makeup
What a weird category. I swear, every year there's always a head-scratcher here. (Norbit, Click,Oscar nominees!) This year it's The Young Victoria. Huh? Nice film, but best makeup? Okay, whatever you say makeup branch. No one has seen Il Divo, so this should be an easy win forStar Trek.
Will Win: Star Trek
If Hell Freezes Over: Il Divo
Should have been here: District 9
Best Score
I really hope that Up wins this one: and all signs point to yes. Please, Academy: don't give the award to Avatar's boring, manipulative score. If you want to throw us a surprise, make itFantastic Mr. Fox. Or even The Hurt Locker, if you want to make it a sweeper! But not Avatar. Okay? Thanks.
Will Win: Up
Might Win: Avatar
Best Song
Crazy Heart, go!
Will Win: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart
If They Throw Us a Surprise Like They Like to Do: "Almost There", The Princess & the Frog
Best Sound Mixing & Editing
A fun category to see what happens: always difficult to call. I think it's down to the two frontrunners: Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Weird alien environments with lots of guns and explosions and arrows and dragons? Or a super-tense, sophisticated sound design of desert and war? Honestly, Avatar may get both of these, but I have a feeling we'll see a split: Avatar for Editing, and Hurt Locker for Mixing. And looking at the pundits, many seem to agree. If we're wrong, expect to see Avatar take both of these.
Sound Mixing
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Might Win: Avatar
Sound Editing
Will Win: Avatar
Might Win: The Hurt Locker
Best Visual Effects
SNORE.
Will Win: Avatar
Best Foreign Language Feature
A lot of us are quite cynical about this category. Will the Academy chicken out again and ignore the 'difficult' nominees, giving it to a little seen but nice-and-cuddly nominee sliding up from the middle? That would be Argentina's The Secret in Their Eyes. I'm hoping that doesn't happen this year, and instead, they finally give the award to a front-runner: Haneke's chilly The White Ribbon, winner of the Palme d'Or. I'm probably wrong.
Will Win: The White Ribbon
Might Win: The Secret in Their Eyes
[LAST MINUTE CHANGE: The Secret in Their Eyes will win this -- I suspect the rumours are true.]
Best Animated Feature
Done and done!
Will Win: Up
Might Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Best Documentary Feature
The poor dolphins. But just in case they get squeemish, it may go to the equally political and enlightening Food, Inc.
Will Win: The Cove
Might Win: Food Inc.
Best Live Action Short
Emotional, political, well made? The Door. But maybe they'll go with the Slumdog Millionaire-lite Kavi? Or how about the harrowing Australian entry Miracle Fish? Always tough to say, and always the deal-breaker in Oscar pools.
Will Win: The Door
Might Win: Kavi
Wouldn't Be Surprised: Miracle Fish
Best Animated Short
A pretty good batch this year. Will Wallace & Gromit continue their streak? Please? It was great. But if voters decide to simply look at the synopses and film stills, I'm terrified that they're gonna go with what appears to be a witty film, but is in actuality a piece of crap:Logorama. Terrible script, mediocre voiceovers, clunky animation, and a half-witty idea that goes on too long. I hated it. Hated hated hated it. Please, Academy... don't take the bait. If you want to give it to someone else, ANY of the other nominees would do. The witty Looney Tunes-inspired The Lady and the Reaper. The amusing, touching French Roast. Or the absolutely hilarious, if crude, Sleeping Beauty (my favourite). Just not the logo-dropping, please!
Will Win: Wallace & Gromit in A Matter of Loaf or Death
Might Win: The Lady and the Reaper
Wouldn't Be Surprised, but Very Disappointed: Logorama
Best Documentary Short
Hm. A very tough one here. I'm thinking that the US Financial Crisis will hit a chord and voters will go for The Last Truck. But as with all of the short categories, what do I know? China's Unnatural Disaster has just as good a chance.
Will Win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Might Win: China's Unnatural Disaster, the Tears of Sichuan Province
Round-Up!
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (alt. Avatar)
Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (alt. James Cameron, Avatar)
Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (alt. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker)
Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (alt. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side)
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (alt. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones)
Supporting Actress: Mo'nique, Precious (alt. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air)
Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (alt. The Hurt Locker)
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (alt. Precious)
Editing: The Hurt Locker (alt. Avatar)
Cinematography: Avatar (alt. The Hurt Locker)
Art Direction: Avatar (alt. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus)
Costume: The Young Victoria (alt. Bright Star)
Makeup: Star Trek (alt. Il Divo)
Score: Up (alt. Avatar)
Song: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart (alt. "Almost There", The Princess & the Frog)
Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker (alt. Avatar)
Sound Editing: Avatar (alt. The Hurt Locker)
Visual Effects: Avatar (alt. Star Trek)
Feature Animated: Up (alt. Fantastic Mr. Fox)
Foreign Language: [Last Minute Change] The Secret in Their Eyes (alt. White Ribbon)
Feature Documentary: The Cove (alt. Food Inc.)
Live Action Short: The Door (alt. Kavi)
Animated Short: Wallace & Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death' (alt. Logorama)
Documentary Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (alt. China's Unnatural Disaster)
