Final Oscar Predictions

Foreign Language Feature

Word is that Denmark's entry and Golden Globe winner In a Better World has been doing very well at the Academy screenings. One thing to remember is that this is one of the few categories that requires voters to have seen all five nominated pictures: what does this mean? Retirees. Hence why you don't often see the Biggest film win, nor the critical darling. (Dogtooth hasn't a chance in hell.) Villeneuve's film and Canada's entry Incendies has also been making a splash around the Academy, while some are suggesting that Iñárritu's star-director status and Bardem's Actor nom will make Biutiful a shoo-in for this award: they're forgetting that his work has always been dividing, and reviews have suggested that Bardem is the only decent thing in the film. Not happening.

Best Bet: In a Better World, Denmark

Close Behind: Incendies, Canada

Dark Horse: Biutiful, Mexico

Animated Feature

No elaboration needed.

Best Bet: Toy Story 3

Very Dark Horse: How To Train Your Dragon

Documentary Feature

One of the most exciting categories of the night: will Banksy win? Or will the Academy 'stick it to the man' and give it to Inside Job? The latter is more likely, but some are sticking with Gift Shop. Then again, this is an often difficult category to predict... will Restrapo take it? Or Waste Land? Hmmmm!

Best Bet: Inside Job

Delicious Alternative: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Short (Live Action)

God of Love has been making quite a splash, garnering favourable comparisons to Woody Allen and picking up a student Academy Award. But Na Wewe and Wish 143 may just be too irresistibly baity to resist.

Best Guess: God of Love

Super-Bait: Na Wewe

But, What the Hell Do I Know?: Wish 143

Short (Animated)

The kid-friendly, entertaining and star-filled Gruffalo is the likely winner here. However, 'arty' short animated films often appear as winners: in which case, go for Madagascar.

Best Guess: The Gruffalo

Technically Impressive Dark Horse: Madagascar, A Journey Diary

Documentary (Short Subject)

Always a very difficult category to predict. It really is a toss-up between three films, of whichStrangers No More may actually be your wisest choice: a global classroom of 48 nationalities in a Tel-Aviv school. Touching, hopeful, topical. But I'm going for Killing in the Name, which follows a man waging his own vendetta against jihadism after a suicide bomber attacked his wedding. Still, don't rule out any of the others in this tie-breaking category.

Best Guess: Killing in the Name

Close Behind: Strangers No More

Once Again, What Do I Know?: Warriors of Qiugang

Art Direction

One of the most difficult categories of the night, and a three-way race. (In fact, I may be switching this at the last moment.) One thing to consider is that every Tim Burton film that has been nominated here has won the award, starting with Batman in 1989 and most recently withSweeney Todd. That, and the overkill art direction of the film, may be enough to push it over the edge -- but was it all that successful as a CGI explosion? Last year's winner, the equally CGI-drenched Avatar did its fantastical environment much better. Many are calling The King's Speech as the likely winner, in case it pulls a sweep on us. I for one am not anticipating such a sweep happening, and I think this is one category in which its competition is too strong.Inception is such a film, full of memorable moments that hinge on its elaborate sets. For now, I'm going with a Tim Burton continuation, but I'm really tempted to call an Inception win.

Best Bet: The King's Speech

"Most Art Direction" Dark Horse: Alice in Wonderland

Memorable Dark Horse: Inception

Costume

Another difficult category, because any of these will make a good Oscar story -- but two nominees have been splitting the experts. If we anticipate a sweep, The King's Speech could easily pick this one up, and not undeservingly so. Alice in Wonderland's costumes were one of the few elements that I actually thoroughly enjoyed from the film, designed by master costumer Colleen Atwood. Indeed, the experts are split between the two -- but all the ones that I trust the most are behind Speech. I agree.

Best Bet: The King's Speech

Close Behind: Alice in Wonderland

Makeup

Always a toss-up category, but I'm anticipating a 'most makeup' award going to The Wolfman. But then again, how many voters actually saw the film, and how many are willing to award it? Don't be surprised if either Barney's Version (aging!) or The Way Back takes it.

"Most Makeup"/Best Bet: The Wolfman

If They Couldn't Sit Through That: Barney's Version

Visual Effects

One of the few slam-dunks of the night. Alice in Wonderland may shock à la Golden Compass, but voters will probably want to reward Nolan's film somewhere: this is the most logical, competition-free place.

Best Bet: Inception

Dark Horse: Alice in Wonderland

Original Score

Another one of the most anticipated categories of the night, a tight two-way race between the prolific Alexandre Desplat with his fourth nomination since 2003 for The King's Speech and newcomers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for their much acclaimed work on The Social Network. Who would've thought a decade ago that Reznor would be up for an Oscar one day? It's a great score and a delicious story... but if there's a sweep going on and they finally want to reward the great Desplat, The King's Speech could easily take this.

Best Bet: The Social Network

Close Behind: The King's Speech

Original Song

Opinion seems to fall behind Randy Newman's "We Belong Together" -- but is anyone else having difficulty remembering any song from the film? I just can't imagine it. Nevertheless, I suspect the general good-will towards the film and Newman (who only has a single Oscar to date among 20 nominations) will lead him to victory here. Rahman and Dido's song "If I Rise", then again, is a great track that was predominantly featured in a climatic moment in Boyle's 127 Hours, which seems unlikely to get an award anywhere else. Is this where they will reward it?

Best Bet: "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3

Close Behind: "If I Rise", 127 Hours

Sound Mixing

Virtually everyone is predicting Inception to take both sound categories. I think there's some logic to this, but I have a feeling we're going to see a repeat of The Dark Knight's fate: everyone predicts it to win both, but it only walks away with Sound Editing. Why? Numerous complaints about how loud his films are, and the frankly muddy sound mixing. My bet is that True Grit will take it, finally rewarding the Coens' excellent sound designs. But don't be shocked if Salt takes it. Or how about one of the most-talked about sound mixing moments of the year, the crystal clear conversation in a thumping club featured in The Social Network? None would be all that surprising, frankly.

Best Bet: Inception

Dark Horse/My Ballot: True Grit

Sound Editing

Best Bet: Inception

Dark Horse: True Grit

Cinematography

It's time for Roger Deakins (No Country for Old Men, Fargo, The Assassination of Jesse James, O Brother Where Art Thou?, Revolutionary Road), one of the greatest living cinematographers, to finally win an Academy Award -- at least this is the thinking that has been going around. Will they want to finally reward him for one of his lesser, though still excellent, works? Or will Inception with its recent ASC win and memorable lensing take it? It's a distinct possibility, and some may even say the obvious conclusion. But this category is a strange one at the Academy: let's not forget some past losers include Children of Men and Black Hawk Down.But the online community seems to lean towards a Deakins win here -- and if not him, then Matthew Libatique for Aronofsky's Black Swan. Sure, it's his first nomination, but unlike the acting categories, voters don't really seem to pay attention to how 'due' any of the craftspeople are. (Kevin O'Connell, with 20 nominations and no wins, anyone?) And of any of the nominees,Black Swan strikes me as having the most memorable images. I wouldn't count it out.

Best Bet: True Grit

Dark Horses: Inception and Black Swan

Sweeper Possibility: The King's Speech

Editing

This category should also be known as "Most Obvious Editing", as the winners here usually follow that rule. I also find that winning films tend to not rely so much on editing, but screenwriting. Take for example the most likely winner (and ACE winner) The Social Network: the parallel editing patterns were written in the screenplay. But I digress. 127 Hours is your biggest competition, with maybe-maybe-maybe Black Swan as an outsider pick. (No,Inception was not nominated here. A crime for some people, barely a blip on my radar.)

Best Bet: The Social Network

Dark Horse: 127 Hours

Original Screenplay

Will they shock us and go for a sophisticated, socially relevant comedy? No. They'll go for the handsome, moving, excellent and deserving The King's Speech.

Best Bet: The King's Speech

Very Dark Horse: The Kids Are All Right

Adapted Screenplay

Seemingly the most locked category of the night, next to Leading Actor. Aaron Sorkin, he that is humble, will win the Oscar.

Best Bet: The Social Network

If Hell Freezes Over: Toy Story 3

Actress in a Supporting Role

The most difficult major category of the night, a seeming 3-way race with 2 very distinct upset possibilities. Really, it could go to any of these ladies. Melissa Leo was dominating the season with her baity role in Best Picture nominated The Fighter, but has she turned voters off with her rather, er, interesting behaviour as of late? Considering that I don't think she was that far ahead of her competitors in the first place, that could just be the case. Helena Bonham Carter is overdue for an Oscar, but does she deserve it for her somewhat lightweight, if delightful, performance? Or what about one of my current favourites, Amy Adams in her third nomination since bursting onto the scene in 2005's Junebug? And for the hell of it, critical darling and Australian veteran Jacki Weaver? But I think the winner will be the most obvious case of category fraud in a long time, 14-year old Hailee Steinfeld for her brilliant performance in True Grit. This category is kind to young actresses and she's the lead in a film that the Academy obviously liked very, very much. Smart money is on Leo, but I'm taking a bit of a chance here and placing my bet on Steinfeld.

Best Guess: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Would Have Won: Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Could Win: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Wouldn't Be Shocked: Amy Adams, The Fighter

Delicious Alternative: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Actor in a Supporting Role

Seems to be a slam-dunk for first-time (!) nominee Christian Bale in a juicy, Oscar-bait performance that has been sweeping the circuit. But then again, Rush's performance in a certain frontrunner is perhaps the most delightful of the bunch. It's definitely Bale's to lose, but if Rush wins, I won't be (completely) shocked.

Best Bet: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Dark Horse: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Actress in a Leading Role

Bening seems to have been making a bit of a comeback in recent weeks according to the gossip. She's Hollywood Royalty, still without an Oscar, in a critically acclaimed Best Picture nominee and a subtle, complex performance. And there's no Hilary Swank to compete against! Sounds good for Bening, right? Too bad Portman gave what some are calling the 'performance of the year' in an even more acclaimed Best Picture and Director nominee that rests on her shoulders. Oops.

Best Bet: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Dark Horse: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Actor in a Leading Role

Moving on.

Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

If Hell Freezes Over: You're kidding, right? Uh... James... Franco?

Directing

In a shocking move, the DGA awarded Tom Hooper for his understated, elegant work on the frontrunner The King's Speech, beating out the seemingly unbeatable David Fincher. Ever since then, the online Oscar community has become suddenly, fiercely split. The DGA is one of the most accurate awards in relation to the Oscars, some argue. Never before has someone swept *every single* critics award, others retort. Predicting a split between Picture and Director is a tricky business; the last few times it happened, the eventual Best Picture winner was a shockingly close race: Crash/Brokeback, Chicago/Pianist, Shakespeare/Ryan. But you know what? I'm still calling a win for Fincher. Why? Even I am tempted to vote for him over Hooper, and I hated his film. Consider this a vote of good-will for his past films and a nod to the critics. But if I'm wrong, I won't be all that surprised.

Best Bet: David Fincher, The Social Network

Close Behind: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Motion Picture

It's been down to two films since October, but The King's Speech has shown its mettle with wins at the major industry guild awards. Yes, The Social Network dominated the critics -- but the critics don't vote. When King's Speech won both the PGA and the DGA, awards that seemed to be destined for Social Network, we all knew it was over. Some are still holding out on a surprise win, but I think the ranked ballot, the Weinstein's excellent campaign and the sheer quality of the film mean that we have a handsome winner for the 83rd Academy Awards.

Best Bet: The King's Speech

Dark Horse: The Social Network

Shocker: Toy Story 3 or The Fighter

Rundown

Picture: The King's Speech

Director: David Fincher, The Social Network

Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Original Screenplay: The King's Speech

Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

Cinematography: True Grit

Editing: The Social Network

Art Direction: The King's Speech

Costume: The King's Speech

Makeup: The Wolfman

Visual Effects: Inception

Score: The Social Network

Song: "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3

Sound Mixing: True Grit

Sound Editing: Inception

Documentary: Inside Job

Foreign Language: In a Better World

Animated: Toy Story 3

Short Doc: Killing in the Name

Short Animated: The Gruffalo

Short Fiction: God of Love

The King's Speech: 5

The Social Network: 4

True Grit: 3

Toy Story 3: 2

Inception: 2

Post-Nomination Round Up

I did very well this morning, managing 86/105. I correctly predicted the difficult category of Supporting Actress and all of The King's Speech's nominations. Didn't see two of Inception's snubs coming, but it deserves it: the film was a pompous mess. Other surprises:

Tron misses out in Visual Effects, Hereafter makes it in.

Black Swan misses Original Screenplay and only racks up 5 nominations.

Alice in Wonderland misses Makeup, which I'm guessing has something to do with too much computer manipulation.

I Am Love's single nomination for Costume, which makes me very happy.

Waiting for Superman misses nods for Feature Documentary and Original Song.

Dogtooth makes it in for Foreign Language Feature.

The Sound categories only have 2 films (True Grit and Inception) in common.

Andrew Garfield misses in Supporting Actor.

Best Picture 10/10

Best Director 4/5

In a welcomed surprise, Nolan gets snubbed and the Coens get in.

1. David Fincher, "The Social Network"

2. Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

4. Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"

5. David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

6. Joel & Ethan Coen, "True Grit"

Actress 5/5

Actor 4/5

Javier Bardem makes it in, Gosling drops out in an unsurprising move.

1. Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

2. Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

3. James Franco, "127 Hours"

4. Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

6. Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"

Supporting Actress 5/5

I surprisingly managed to get them all here, correctly predicting Jacki Weaver.

Supporting Actor 4/5

Hawkes repeats his surprise SAG nomination here at the expense of Garfield.

1. Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

2. Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

3. Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

5. Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

6. John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

Original Screenplay 4/5

"Black Swan" gets replaced with Leigh's "Another Year". Not surprised that Leigh made it in.

1. The King's Speech

2. The Kids Are All Right

3. Inception

5. The Fighter

6. Another Year

Adapted Screenplay 5/5

Editing 4/5

"Inception" shows how weak it really was by missing out here and Directing, two supposed 'locks'.

1. Social Network

3. Black Swan

4. The Fighter

5. The King's Speech

6. 127 Hours

Cinematography 5/5

Art Direction 4/5

1. Inception

2. The King's Speech

3. Alice in Wonderland

4. True Grit

7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

Costume 4/5

"I Am Love" makes a very, very welcome surprise addition here.

1. Alice in Wonderland

2. The King's Speech

3. True Grit

4. The Tempest

n/a I Am Love

Makeup 2/3

Too much CGI probably killed "Alice in Wonderland" here.

2. The Wolfman

3. Barney's Version

6. The Way Back

Sound Mixing 4/5

I get total bragging rights for correctly predicting "King's Speech" here. Notice that there's only 2 common films between the Sound categories: very interesting!

1. Inception

3. True Grit

4. Social Network

5. The King's Speech (No Guts, No Glory!)

9. Salt

Sound Editing 3/5

1. Inception

3. True Grit

5. Tron Legacy

6. Toy Story 3

10. Unstoppable

Visual Effects 3/5

Huh? Double whammy: "Hereafter" makes it in a complete shocker, and "Tron" is snubbed.

1. Inception

2. Alice in Wonderland

4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

6. Iron Man 2

7. Hereafter

Score 4/5

"Alice" misses yet again, and Rahman shows he's no one-hit wonder with the Academy.

1. The Social Network

2. The King's Speech

3. Inception

5. How to Train Your Dragon

6. 127 Hours

Song 3/4

Only 4 nominees this year, so do I count my #5 spot for making it in? I will, because my 3-5 slots were actually a tie for me.

1. "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3

2. "I See The Light", Tangled

5. "If I Rise", 127 Hours

- "Coming Home", Country Strong

Foreign Language 4/5

"Dogtooth" makes it in!

1. Incendies (Canada)

2. In a Better World (Denmark)

3. Biutiful (Mexico)

5. Dogtooth (Greece)

6. Outside the Law (Algeria)

Animated 2/3

"Illusionist" makes it in over Disney's "Tangled" in a pleasant, if not wholly unsurprising, move.

1. Toy Story 3

2. How to Train Your Dragon

4. The Illusionist

Documentary 3/5

"Waiting for Superman" shockingly gets left out here.

1. Inside Job

3. Exit Through the Gift Shop

4. Restrapo

7. Waste Land

8. Gasland

It's That Time Again: Oscar Nominations Predictions

I don't feel like writing explanations, so instead I simply split up each list as I see fit.

Best Picture

Top Tier/Locks

1. The King's Speech

2. The Social Network

3. Black Swan

4. Inception

5. The Fighter

Second Tier

6. True Grit

7. The Kids Are All Right

8. Toy Story 3

Third Tier

9. 127 Hours

10. Winter's Bone

11. The Town

Dark Horses

12. Shutter Island

13. Ghost Writer

14. Another Year

15. Blue Valentine

16. The Way Back

17. How To Train Your Dragon

18. Rabbit Hole

19. Hereafter

20. Conviction

Best Director

Top Tier

1. David Fincher, "The Social Network"

2. Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

3. Christopher Nolan, "Inception"

4. Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"

5. David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

Possibilities

6. Joel & Ethan Coen, "True Grit"

7. Danny Boyle, "127 Hours"

Long Shots

8. Debra Granik, "Winter's Bone"

9. Lisa Cholodenko, "The Kids Are All Right"

10. Ben Affleck, "The Town"

11. Mike Leigh, "Another Year"

12. Martin Scorsese, "Shutter Island"

13. Roman Polanski, "Ghost Writer"

14. Peter Weir, "The Way Back"

Best Actress

1. Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

2. Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

3. Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"

4. Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

5. Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

6. Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right"

7. Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

8. Lesley Manville, "Another Year"

9. Tilda Swinton, "I Am Love"

10. Hillary Swank, "Conviction"

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

2. Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

3. James Franco, "127 Hours"

4. Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

5. Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"

6. Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"

7. Mark Wahlberg, "The Fighter"

8. Robert Duvall, "Get Low"

9. Paul Giamatti, "Barney's Vision"

10. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Shutter Island"

Best Supporting Actress

1. Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

2. Amy Adams, "The Fighter"

3. Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

4. Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

5. Jackie Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

6. Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"

7. Lesley Manville, "Another Year"

8. Olivia Williams, "Ghost Writer"

9. Miranda Richardson, "Made in Dagenham"

10. Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole"

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

2. Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

3. Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

4. Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network"

5. Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

6. John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

7. Sam Rockwell, "Conviction"

8. Matt Damon, "True Grit"

9. Peter Postlethwaite, "The Town"

10. Bill Murray, "Get Low"

Original Screenplay

1. The King's Speech

2. The Kids Are All Right

3. Inception

4. Black Swan

5. The Fighter

6. Another Year

7. Blue Valentine

8. Get Low

9. The Illusionist

10. Made in Dagenham

Adapted Screenplay

1. The Social Network

2. Toy Story 3

3. Winter's Bone

4. True Grit

5. 127 Hours

6. Ghost Writer

7. The Town

8. Shutter Island

9. Rabbit Hole

10. How To Train Your Dragon

Editing

1. Social Network

2. Inception

3. Black Swan

4. The Fighter

5. The King's Speech

6. 127 Hours

7. Shutter Island

8. True Grit

9. The Town

10. The Kids Are All Right

Cinematography

1. True Grit

2. Inception

3. Black Swan

4. The King's Speech

5. The Social Network

6. 127 Hours

7. Shutter Island

8. The Way Back

9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

10. The Fighter

Art Direction

1. Inception

2. The King's Speech

3. Alice in Wonderland

4. True Grit

5. Black Swan

6. Shutter Island

7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

8. Tron Legacy

9. Robin Hood

10. The Chronicles of Narnia

Costume Design

The performance costumes in "Black Swan" were not designed by Westcott: this is why I'm placing it so low.

1. Alice in Wonderland

2. The King's Speech

3. True Grit

4. The Tempest

5. Burlesque

6. Black Swan

7. Robin Hood

8. Made in Dagenham

9. Shutter Island

10. Tron Legacy

Makeup

From the bake-off shortlist of 7 films.

1. Alice in Wonderland

2. The Wolfman

3. Barney's Version

4. The Fighter

5. The Way Back

6. True Grit

7. Jonah Hex

Sound Mixing

"Inception" is really the only lock here: the rest is a crap-shoot. My No Guts, No Glory pick is "The King's Speech", which probably won't materialize.

1. Inception

2. Black Swan

3. True Grit

4. Social Network

5. The King's Speech (No Guts, No Glory!)

6. 127 Hours

7. Shutter Island

8. Toy Story 3

9. Salt

10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

11. Tron Legacy

12. How to Train Your Dragon

Sound Editing

1. Inception

2. Black Swan

3. True Grit

4. How To Train Your Dragon

5. Tron Legacy

6. Toy Story 3

7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

8. Salt

9. 127 Hours

10. Unstoppable

11. Iron Man 2

Visual Effects

1. Inception

2. Alice in Wonderland

3. Tron Legacy

4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I

5. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

6. Iron Man 2

7. Hereafter

Original Score

1. The Social Network

2. The King's Speech

3. Inception

4. Alice in Wonderland

5. How to Train Your Dragon

6. 127 Hours

7. The Ghost Writer

8. Never Let Me Go

9. Tron Legacy

10. The Way Back

11. Let Me In

Original Song

1. "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3

2. "I See The Light", Tangled

3. "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me", Burlesque

4. "Shine", Waiting for Superman

5. "If I Rise", 127 Hours

Other Possibilities:

"Bound to You", Burlesque

"Welcome to Burlesque", Burlesque

"Chansons Illusioniste", The Illusionist

"Coming Home", Country Strong

"Despicable Me", Despicable Me

Foreign Language Film

1. Incendies (Canada)

2. Biutiful (Mexico)

3. In a Better World (Denmark)

4. Life, Above All (South Africa)

5. Dogtooth (Greece) (No Guts, No Glory!)

5. Outside the Law (Algeria)

7. Confessions (Japan)

8. Even the Rain (Spain)

9. Simple Simon (Sweden)

Feature Animated Film

1. Toy Story 3

2. How to Train Your Dragon

3. Tangled

4. Illusionist

5. Despicable Me

Feature Documentary

1. Inside Job

2. Waiting for Superman

3. Exit Through the Gift Shop

4. Restrapo

5. The Tillman Story

6. Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Elliot Spitzer

7. Waste Land

8. Gasland

The tally of nominations:

The King's Speech: 12

Inception: 10

The Social Network: 9

Black Swan: 9

True Grit: 9

The Fighter: 7

Alice in Wonderland: 5

Top of 2009

So, it's April... and I still haven't caught up with all the flicks of 2009 I wanted to see. My schedule just didn't work out. So, here are a few films I still need to see (and maybe one day will replace some on my top 12 list):

A Serious Man; A Prophet [Opens in a few weeks]; The White Ribbon; Crazy Heart; The Last Station [May be able to see it next week]; 35 Shots of Rum; The Cove; Tulpan; Goodbye Solo; Antichrist; The Limits of Control; Sugar; Bad Lieutenant; Coraline [I know, I know...]; The Princess & the Frog; The Secret of Kells; Bright Star

Wow. I didn't realize how many films I missed from last year -- I knew it was bad, but holy cow! Luckily for me, this year I have a handy-dandy GOLD PASS for the Princess Cinemas: free movies! Yes, indeed. I'm so happy I won this. Unfortunately, I'll be in London for most of the year -- fortunately, for my Grad Studies! I-eeeeee!

TOP TWELVE of 2009

TOP SIXTEEN of 2009

[Updated May 7, 2010]

16. The Last Station (Michael Hoffman, UK-Russia-Germany)

15. Sin Nombre (Cary Fukunaga, Mexico-USA)

14. An Education (Lone Scherfig, UK)

13. (500) Days of Summer (Marc Webb, USA)

12. Fish Tank (Andrea Arnold, UK)

11. Up in the Air (Jason Reitman, USA)

10. District 9 (Neill Blomkamp/Simon Hansen, USA-New Zealand-South Africa)

9. Precious: Based on the novel "Push" by Sapphire (Lee Daniels, USA)

8. The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow, USA)

7. In the Loop (Armando Iannucci, UK)

6. A Single Man (Tom Ford, USA)

5. Up (Pete Docter/Bob Peterson, USA)

4. A Prophet (Jacques Audiard, France)

3. The Secret of Kells (Tomm Moore, Ireland-France-Belgium)

2. I Killed My Mother (Xavier Dolan, Canada)

1. Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino, USA-Germany)

How I Did

Best Picture: Hurt Locker

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Hurt Locker

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock (Wrong -- Predicted Gabby Sidibe upset. Bullock was alternate.)

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'nique

Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker (Wrong -- Predicted Inglourious Basterds. HL was alternate.)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Precious (Wrong -- Predicted Up in the Air. Precious was alternate.)

Best Editing: Hurt Locker

Best Cinematography: Avatar

Best Art Direction: Avatar

Best Makeup: Star Trek

Best Score: Up

Best Song: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart

Best Sound Mixing: Hurt Locker

Best Sound Editing: Hurt Locker (Wrong -- Predicted Avatar. HL was alternate.)

Best Visual Effects: Avatar

Best Foreign: The Secret in Their Eyes

Best Animated: Up

Best Documentary Feature: The Cove

Best Live Action Short: The New Tenants (Wrong -- Predicted The Door.)

Best Animated Short: Stupid Logo Flick With Terrible Script (Wrong -- Predicted Wallace & Gromit. Logorama was alternate.)

Best Documentary Short: Music By Prudence (Wrong -- Predicted The Last Truck.)

16/24

Seven wrong: my worst ever. Got killed on the shorts, and missed both screenplays. With five alternates, I get 21. Not that it counts.

No real surprises here, except with the Live Action Short and Documentary Short: didn't see those ones coming. My last minute switch to "The Secret in their Eyes" was a wise one -- the rumours were true. Didn't expect a "Precious" win for Screenplay, but am pleasantly surprised. Disappointed with the Academy for choosing Sandra Bullock, although I didn't actually expect Gabby to win it. Hey -- no guts, no glory!

If I had a ballot...

Maybe one day I'll actually be filling an Oscar ballot out... Mmmmm... What a wonderful dream...

Let's take a look at each of the categories, shall we?

Best Picture

And for this one, I would have to rank them. Okay! I love lists!

1. Inglourious Basterds

2. Up

3. The Hurt Locker

4. District 9

5. Up in the Air

6. Precious

7. An Education

8. Avatar

(I didn't see The Blind Side and I missed A Serious Man.)

What should have been here? A Single Man.

Best Director

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Actor

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Best Actress

Gabby Sidibe, Precious

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress

Mo'nique, Precious

Best Original Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay

In the Loop

Best Editing

The Hurt Locker

Best Cinematography

Inglourious Basterds

Best Art Direction

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

Best Costumes

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

Best Makeup

The Young Victoria (for pure lulz)

Best Score

Up

Best Song

"The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart

Best Sound Mixing

The Hurt Locker

Best Sound Editing

Avatar

Best Visual Effects

Avatar

Best Animated

Up

Best Documentary

I wouldn't vote... I didn't see enough of them.

Best Foreign

As with Documentary, I didn't see enough of them.

Documentary Short

Didn't see any of them, actually.

Live Action Short

The Door (Maybe Miracle Fish.)

Animated Short

Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (I laughed myself silly. Although I did also adore the Wallace & Gromit flick!)

Oscar Predictions 2010

So, it comes to this. A rather strange Oscar season is coming to an end, and it's a nail-biter. As Sasha Stone always says, "Nobody knows anything": but I think this mantra applies particularly this year. The expansion to 10 Best Picture nominees led to lots of speculation of how the game would change, but in the end we still have a "top five" that have dominated throughout the season.

Quentin Tarantino had a surprise hit with his revisionist romp Inglourious Basterds, initially met with lukewarm responses from a variety of critics; yet it seems to have sweetened with time and repeat viewings, and has become a force to be reckoned with. Who would have thought? Precious stunned festival audiences and was the early favourite, launching Mo'nique's steamroll. It stumbled as the season progressed, but still managed to get nominations for Lee Daniels (Directing), Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing: a fine collection indeed. Up in the Air took Precious' place as the festival favourite at Toronto, warmly greeted by audiences and critics alike. So what happened? Opening the same weekend as a little film called Avatar. Two billion dollars later, the smurf-elves have captured audience hopes around the world: just what the Academy wanted. Expanding to ten nominees in response to The Dark Knight's snub last year, slipping ratings and in the hope of seeing a wider variety of films nominated, I think the nominated ten has achieved this goal. Funny then that a small independent war film directed by a woman and only grossing $13 million is the frontrunner... the best reviewed film of the year and critical darling The Hurt Locker. So it seems to be a David & Goliath battle this year: who will win? Avatar or The Hurt Locker?

Ah, not so fast there. Something else is new this year: preferential ballots. How does this affect the vote? Sure, a film may have plenty of #1 positions; but if everyone else hates the film and ranks it low on their ballots, the film's chances plummet. And films that are widely respected but not necessarily loved, getting few #1 spots but filling up virtually everyone else's #2 or #3 spots, may have a chance.

Avatar may be hurt by this new system. Yes, it has a passionate fan base -- but it also has a significant number of detractors. How will the actor's branch -- the largest in the Academy -- feel about a motion capture film with no acting or writing nominations? Indeed, the film's biggest critics have rightfully pointed out it's mediocre screenplay. (Unobtanium, really?) It's not the kind of film that sits well upon examination; you are enthralled while watching it, but afterwards... not so much. And while there's no denying the craft of the film, that's what the technical categories are for.

So The Hurt Locker it is... maybe. Did Emailgate hurt it's chances? I doubt it, but then again, apparently over 500 ballots were sent in on the final day -- after the so-called scandal broke. Will we also see some backlash going on here? The little film that could has already racked up an impressive number of awards, including the Producer's Guild, the Writer's Guild, and virtually every critic's group. And what about it's box office? In a year where the Academy seems so concerned about ratings and populism, can a film that only made $13 million win the Best Picture Oscar?

I'm betting on it. The Hurt Locker is simply too good to ignore, and I expect it to get a significant number of #1 ballot positions -- and for those that don't rank it at the top, chances are it will still be respected by a large number of voters. But what about the other films in the running? Some are suggesting that maybe the Basterds will sneak in on a wave of passionate voters. I don't agree, simply because I think the film is too divisive. Those that hate it seem toreally hate it, and perhaps some voters will see it as too frivolous or even downright insulting.Up in the Air and Precious seem to me to be films that will do well in the preferential ballots: widely respected, with some pockets of love. I wouldn't be too surprised if either one takes it. Shocked, yes. Surprised? No. But there's another film that is also widely respected --Up. Seriously, who didn't like it? I would not be surprised at all if Pixar's animated flick manages to sneak in.

But the answer is that we simply don't know how this will pan out. We're in a brave new world here, folks. Preferential ballots, scandals, the biggest film of all time vs. an independant, festival favourites, Tarantino fanboys, an expanded field. Mixed messages everywhere! So I'm going to try something new this year: percent chances. What kind of chance do I think each nominee with have? Let's go!

1. The Hurt Locker 42%

2. Avatar 27%

3. Up 10%

4. Up in the Air 10%

5. Inglourious Basterds 7%

6. Precious 3%

7. Other: 1%. Not happening.

So I'm calling a win for The Hurt Locker, but I'm not comfortable with it. Avatar may pull it off -- but I have a feeling that something unexpected may happen. Probably won't.

Probable Win: The Hurt Locker

Might Win: Avatar

The Dark Horses: Up/Up in the Air

Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

Best Director

History will be made tomorrow when Kathryn Bigelow becomes the first woman to win the Oscar for directing. Only three other women have ever been nominated: Lina Wertmüller (Seven Beauties, 1976), Jane Campion (The Piano, 1993) and Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation, 2003). Bigelow has been sweeping the category from the get-go, and deservedly so. Her ex-husband Jim Cameron has a long-shot for his work on Avatar, but even he has said that she deserves it. Some interesting facts: if Jason Reitman won, he would be the youngest director ever to win. If Lee Daniels won, he would be the first African-American (only the second nominated, too, after John Singleton in 1991 for Boys n the Hood) -- and he's gay, too! And if Tarantino wins, well, it's Tarantino. I love that man. But cheers to Ms. Bigelow!

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Might Win: James Cameron, Avatar

Should Win: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Actor

Mr. Bridges seems to have this in the bag, too. What a surprise this season was! Crazy Heart came quite late in the game, and Jeff Bridges stole the spotlight away from the battle between George Clooney and Colin Firth. All signs point to a win for "the Dude", one of the hardest working actors in Hollywood for the last few decades. But if there's anyone who could spoil it for him, it just may be Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker if it starts pulling a sweep. A grand performance -- I don't think many people would complain if he won. (My personal ballot would be an easy choice here: Colin Firth's stunning work in A Single Man.)

Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Might Win: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Colin Firth, A Single Man

Best Actress

NO GUTS, NO GLORY! This is the category that has been causing many pundits to be pulling their hair out. Will they award Sandra Bullock for her (mediocre) work in the surprise hit The Blind Side? 2009 saw her two biggest box office successes and made many people realize just how much they like Sandy, the girl next door. She's well loved in Hollywood and by audiences, and just oozes charm. But does anybody really think she deserves it for this? Come on. Really? Before this turn of events late in the game, this was a battle between newcomer Carey Mulligan for her excellent performance in An Education, and the Oscar queen herself, Meryl Streep -- who hasn't won an Oscar since 1982 and keeps breaking the record for total nominations (she's now up to 16). She almost won last year with Doubt. If it wasn't for Mirren, she would have won for The Devil Wears Prada. And this performance? She hit it out of the ballpark. Sparkling work. But voters will think what they always think: "let's give it to someone else! She has a million Oscars already". 27 years later, she's still missing her third one. Swank has two leading actress Oscars. Justice must be served!

Too bad for Meryl that she didn't give the best performance of the year. That, my dears, would be Gabby Sidibe in Precious. How this bubbly newcomer gave a performance of such depth and difficulty is simply astounding. And here's my gutsy choice of the night: that Meryl and Sandra will siphon votes from one another, leaving the passionate base behind Gabby to give her the Oscar. It's probably the wrong choice. Betting people should place their money on Bullock.

Probably Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Might Win: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

My Foolish Prediction: Gabby Sidibe, Precious

Should Win: Gabby Sidibe, Precious

Best Supporting Actor and Actress

There's no real competition here, folks: Waltz and Mo'nique will get their Oscars. They've swept the precursors, leaving nothing else in their wake. And the best part? Both of them deserve it. Imagine a year ago: would anyone have guessed? "Mo'nique, Oscar winner? Christoph Waltz, who?"

Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

If Hell Freezes Over: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Will Win: Mo'nique, Precious

If Hell Freezes Over: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Best Original Screenplay

A battle between Tarantino and Boal. Which one to go for? Inglourious Basterds' script that shows Tarantino's hand, with wonderfully written dialogue that only he could come up with? Or the emotional hook of Boal's The Hurt Locker, which has been in the news quite a bit lately? I just don't know. I would say Basterds, but as Guy Lodge at InContention has point out, "the Academy often bypasses more 'writerly' scripts for ones with a stronger emotional hook, particularly if it's from a film well-positioned in the race: see Milk and The Pianist." I think he has a good point there. But I just can't seem to shake off the feeling that the Academy wants to give Tarantino another award. Another foolish move of me, coming up!

Will Win: Inglourious Basterds

Might Win: The Hurt Locker

Dark Horse: Up

Best Adapted Screenplay

An easier one here. Up in the Air will get its 'also-ran' award in the screenplay category, a sign of affection for a former frontrunner. Precious has a chance here, as a clear adaptation.

Will Win: Up in the Air

Might Win: Precious

Should Win: In the Loop

Best Editing

Winner of the Eddie award, The Hurt Locker seems to me to have this in the bag.

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Might Win: Avatar

Best Cinematography

A curious battle here between groundbreaking computer technology that really blurs the line of what "cinematography" actually is, a gritty war film, a revisionist war film, and a black-and-white Austrian art film. (Sorry, Harry.) My guess is that voters will ignore the entire philosophical implications of voting for Avatar and just do it. But! I still wouldn't rule out any of the other three winning... sorry, Harry.

Will Win: Avatar

Might Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Art Direction

Easy peasy. Say what you want about the film's writing, you gotta give it to Cameron and his crew: it was stunning design.

Will Win: Avatar

Might Win: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

Best Costume Design

Royal porn for the win! Seriously, the Academy has been voting on auto-pilot in this category for years, so why should it stop now? If they somehow smarten up, we'll see Jane Campion's wonderful Bright Star win, or even the creative threads of The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus. But that's unlikely. Go, pretty dresses, go!

Will Win: The Young Victoria

Might Win: Bright Star

Best Makeup

What a weird category. I swear, every year there's always a head-scratcher here. (Norbit, Click,Oscar nominees!) This year it's The Young Victoria. Huh? Nice film, but best makeup? Okay, whatever you say makeup branch. No one has seen Il Divo, so this should be an easy win forStar Trek.

Will Win: Star Trek

If Hell Freezes Over: Il Divo

Should have been here: District 9

Best Score

I really hope that Up wins this one: and all signs point to yes. Please, Academy: don't give the award to Avatar's boring, manipulative score. If you want to throw us a surprise, make itFantastic Mr. Fox. Or even The Hurt Locker, if you want to make it a sweeper! But not Avatar. Okay? Thanks.

Will Win: Up

Might Win: Avatar

Best Song

Crazy Heart, go!

Will Win: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart

If They Throw Us a Surprise Like They Like to Do: "Almost There", The Princess & the Frog

Best Sound Mixing & Editing

A fun category to see what happens: always difficult to call. I think it's down to the two frontrunners: Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Weird alien environments with lots of guns and explosions and arrows and dragons? Or a super-tense, sophisticated sound design of desert and war? Honestly, Avatar may get both of these, but I have a feeling we'll see a split: Avatar for Editing, and Hurt Locker for Mixing. And looking at the pundits, many seem to agree. If we're wrong, expect to see Avatar take both of these.

Sound Mixing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Might Win: Avatar

Sound Editing

Will Win: Avatar

Might Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects

SNORE.

Will Win: Avatar

Best Foreign Language Feature

A lot of us are quite cynical about this category. Will the Academy chicken out again and ignore the 'difficult' nominees, giving it to a little seen but nice-and-cuddly nominee sliding up from the middle? That would be Argentina's The Secret in Their Eyes. I'm hoping that doesn't happen this year, and instead, they finally give the award to a front-runner: Haneke's chilly The White Ribbon, winner of the Palme d'Or. I'm probably wrong.

Will Win: The White Ribbon

Might Win: The Secret in Their Eyes

[LAST MINUTE CHANGE: The Secret in Their Eyes will win this -- I suspect the rumours are true.]

Best Animated Feature

Done and done!

Will Win: Up

Might Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Best Documentary Feature

The poor dolphins. But just in case they get squeemish, it may go to the equally political and enlightening Food, Inc.

Will Win: The Cove

Might Win: Food Inc.

Best Live Action Short

Emotional, political, well made? The Door. But maybe they'll go with the Slumdog Millionaire-lite Kavi? Or how about the harrowing Australian entry Miracle Fish? Always tough to say, and always the deal-breaker in Oscar pools.

Will Win: The Door

Might Win: Kavi

Wouldn't Be Surprised: Miracle Fish

Best Animated Short

A pretty good batch this year. Will Wallace & Gromit continue their streak? Please? It was great. But if voters decide to simply look at the synopses and film stills, I'm terrified that they're gonna go with what appears to be a witty film, but is in actuality a piece of crap:Logorama. Terrible script, mediocre voiceovers, clunky animation, and a half-witty idea that goes on too long. I hated it. Hated hated hated it. Please, Academy... don't take the bait. If you want to give it to someone else, ANY of the other nominees would do. The witty Looney Tunes-inspired The Lady and the Reaper. The amusing, touching French Roast. Or the absolutely hilarious, if crude, Sleeping Beauty (my favourite). Just not the logo-dropping, please!

Will Win: Wallace & Gromit in A Matter of Loaf or Death

Might Win: The Lady and the Reaper

Wouldn't Be Surprised, but Very Disappointed: Logorama

Best Documentary Short

Hm. A very tough one here. I'm thinking that the US Financial Crisis will hit a chord and voters will go for The Last Truck. But as with all of the short categories, what do I know? China's Unnatural Disaster has just as good a chance.

Will Win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant

Might Win: China's Unnatural Disaster, the Tears of Sichuan Province

Round-Up!

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (alt. Avatar)

Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (alt. James Cameron, Avatar)

Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (alt. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker)

Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (alt. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side)

Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (alt. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones)

Supporting Actress: Mo'nique, Precious (alt. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air)

Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (alt. The Hurt Locker)

Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (alt. Precious)

Editing: The Hurt Locker (alt. Avatar)

Cinematography: Avatar (alt. The Hurt Locker)

Art Direction: Avatar (alt. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus)

Costume: The Young Victoria (alt. Bright Star)

Makeup: Star Trek (alt. Il Divo)

Score: Up (alt. Avatar)

Song: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart (alt. "Almost There", The Princess & the Frog)

Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker (alt. Avatar)

Sound Editing: Avatar (alt. The Hurt Locker)

Visual Effects: Avatar (alt. Star Trek)

Feature Animated: Up (alt. Fantastic Mr. Fox)

Foreign Language: [Last Minute Change] The Secret in Their Eyes (alt. White Ribbon)

Feature Documentary: The Cove (alt. Food Inc.)

Live Action Short: The Door (alt. Kavi)

Animated Short: Wallace & Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death' (alt. Logorama)

Documentary Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (alt. China's Unnatural Disaster)